The boom of the hottest photovoltaic industry is s

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It is still early for the photovoltaic industry to recover.

"the value-added tax rate of photovoltaic power generation projects will be reduced by 50% to 8.5%." "1000 photovoltaic product enterprises in Europe asked the EU to give up imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese solar energy enterprises", "Buffett undercut Suntech Power, and China's photovoltaic stocks listed in the United States rose sharply" The sublimation of the good news has stimulated the enthusiasm of investors in a shares, and there has been a rare limit phenomenon in Longji shares and St Chaori. Is the opportunity for bottom reading photovoltaic enterprises coming

it is still early for the industry to recover.

since this year, due to the solid demand for solar energy systems in China, the European Union, Japan and some emerging market countries, the price of photovoltaic products has rebounded since January, such as 156mm × The price of 156mm polysilicon chip has increased from an average of $0.807 per chip at the beginning of the year to $0.911 per chip at present, 156mm × 156mm monocrystalline silicon wafer has increased from $1.145 per wafer at the beginning of the year to $1.221 per wafer at present. Affected by the active stocking of Japan, Britain and other countries, the operating rate of sunflower, Oriental Sunrise and other component manufacturers increased slightly in the first quarter of this year. According to the first quarter performance forecast released by the company, they have turned losses into profits, and the growth rate obviously exceeded market expectations

however, although the price of photovoltaic products has rebounded, the current price still cannot support the resumption of production of most enterprises, especially in the shadow of the EU double anti dumping, the dumping of overseas polysilicon enterprises against China will continue to suppress the enthusiasm of domestic manufacturers. An official of the Ministry of industry and information technology said that at present, more than 85% of domestic polysilicon production enterprises have stopped production, and most enterprises are in a state of loss. At the same time, the precarious risk of debt crisis, which replaced the zigzag strength risk with the zigzag yield strength, has become increasingly fierce. The leading photovoltaic enterprises represented by Suntech Power, once the "business card of Wuxi", are currently facing the risk of bankruptcy, and have been prompted by the US exchange for delisting twice, while Jiangxi Saiwei is also facing bankruptcy. Relevant data show that at present, the asset liability ratio of domestic component companies listed overseas is close to 80%, and that of component companies listed domestically is also close to 60%

"the rise of new energy stocks this time is just short-term speculation." Houwentao, an analyst at Guotai Junan, told red weekly. He believes that in terms of the supply and demand of the photovoltaic industry, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the prices of related products have rebounded since this year, they are still hovering at the bottom on the whole. It is too early to say that there is a real recovery

the cancellation of the European Union's double counterattack case is a dream.

"more than 1000 photovoltaic enterprises in Europe have asked the European Commission to give up imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese solar energy enterprises". Recently, the rumor that the EU anti sanctions will be lifted has boosted the confidence of domestic photovoltaic enterprises. "If the European Commission can adopt the request to cancel the double anti sanctions, China's photovoltaic enterprises will usher in a second rebirth, and the shrinking export share to Europe is expected to rise again. Otherwise, the bankrupt enterprises will increase after the formal ruling is finalized." An insider told

however, it seems that there are still some domestic photovoltaic enterprises that do not value the power of EU double anti sanctions. For example, in an interview with the media, the chairman of Trinasolar said that despite the adverse factors such as the EU's "double anti" investigation of China's photovoltaic industry, with the increasing demand in China, Japan and other emerging markets, the overall situation of the industry this year will be better than last year

"the opposition of businesses will only temporarily slow down the ruling time and reduce the tax rate standard, but it will not affect the government's decision." Hou Wentao believes that the EU will not lift sanctions. "If the final tax rate is lower than 20%, it should be an ideal result." Fu Caixia of National Securities believes that although the European parity Union and thousands of European enterprises have written to the European Commission, pointing out that the double reverse of Chinese modules will not pay off for Europe, and requiring the EU to withdraw the double reverse of Chinese photovoltaic modules. However, considering the current situation of China's photovoltaic industry, the EU will not easily cancel the preliminary determination of China's photovoltaic products, but it does not rule out that the EU requires China to make other concessions to seek greater interests for itself

a new round of supporting policies is imminent

facing the background that there is no hope of increasing exports in the European market and photovoltaic enterprises have stopped production and reduced production, the government has increased relevant support this year, except that the value-added tax rate of photovoltaic power generation projects has been reduced by 50% and the piston rod has increased to 8.5% with bent 1. Some media also reported that the government is currently preparing "detailed rules for the implementation of the 'distributed photovoltaic demonstration zone' project", "reform of the electricity price subsidy mechanism, adjustment of the golden sun Subsidy Scheme", photovoltaic industry access standards, photovoltaic product export tax rebate policies, etc

this year may be a key year for the photovoltaic industry, and the follow-up support policies cover subsidies, scientific and technological innovation, and regional electricity prices. Relevant people believe that the reduction of VAT rate alone will directly benefit photovoltaic power stations, which is equivalent to raising the price of electricity before tax, which remains to be overcome by 7.8%. Taking 100MW power stations as an example, halving the VAT will increase the profits of enterprises by about 22million per year, which is conducive to thickening the performance of Longji shares, Hairun photovoltaic, sunflower and other enterprises involved in power station development

"although the photovoltaic industry is not profitable in the short term, it still has a bright future in the long run", Hou Wentao said that with the rise of China's demand for green energy and the withdrawal of some enterprises from the market, the situation of excess supply of photovoltaic products will be improved. With the expansion of photovoltaic demand in emerging markets, the photovoltaic industry is expected to gradually come out of the cold winter, and the power resolution can almost reach 1/100000. Zhonghua glass () Department

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