The boom of the hottest silicon semiconductor may

Silicon products: the semiconductor boom may reverse at any time

Lin Wenbo, chairman of silicon products (2325), a leading manufacturer of IC packaging and testing, believes that the semiconductor boom may be better than expected in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and it is possible to reverse at any time. Next year, it will also show steady growth, and the growth rate of silicon products will be better than the average level of the industry

Lin Wenbo said that according to the revenue outlook of the international fabless manufacturers for the fourth quarter, it fell between -12% and 8%. As for the revenue of the top 15 fabless manufacturers in China, the revenue fell by 6% in the third quarter. After entering the fourth quarter, inventory reduction began to occur, and the orders for packaging and testing outsourcing were also reduced. However, it was observed that system manufacturers including apple, Nokia and Intel were relatively optimistic about the outlook for the fourth quarter

therefore, Lin Wenbo believes that although the external forecasts for the fourth quarter of the packaging and testing industry are mostly flat or single digit decline, it is now felt that the semiconductor boom may be better than expected in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and there is the possibility of reversal at any time

in terms of the capacity utilization rate of silicon products in the fourth quarter, Lin Wenbo said that among the three major product lines, only the capacity utilization rate of BGA packaging can maintain the level of 95% in the third quarter, while the capacity utilization rate of wiring and logic IC testing decreased from 95% and 75% in the previous quarter to 90% and 70% respectively

as for the demand trend of various application industries, Lin Wenbo said that the PC market demand will decline, among which GPU graphics chips will rise, Chi company plans to reduce the production of hydrofluorocarbons by 50% in the next five years, and pset chipsets will decline; The demand in the communication field will grow slightly, in which the demand will continue to cool, and the network broadband field will grow; Consumer electronics industry has little engineering significance and needs to be cooled down, especially LCDTV; DRAM memory will also have an off-season effect, and demand will weaken further

for the growth forecast of semiconductor output value next year, Lin Wenbo said that PCs and smart phones will continue to grow. Intel said that PCs will grow by 10%. Research institutions also estimated that when the safety valve of flat-panel guoshunxi was not adjusted properly, he pointed out that computers will also grow rapidly, and even optimistic about the growth rate of 2 times. Therefore, the semiconductor industry will continue to grow steadily next year, with an estimated range of about single digits, Among them, the growth of the packaging and testing industry will be better than that of the overall semiconductor industry, and the growth rate will fall in the high single digits to the low double digits, while the growth of silicon products themselves will be higher than that of the packaging and testing industry

the market is also concerned about the capital expenditure of silicon products next year. Lin Wenbo said that the depreciation cost next year is about 9.8 billion yuan, so he hopes that the capital expenditure can be controlled within 10billion yuan. As for some machines this year, they are deferred to next year, so the capital expenditure this year is reduced to 17billion yuan, a decrease of 4billion yuan from the original estimate of 21billion yuan