The boom of the hottest glass industry is rapidly

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Since the second quarter, various indicators to measure the prosperity of the glass industry have shown positive characteristics: inventories have fallen rapidly, especially in July, prices have risen rapidly, and industry profits have shown an obvious turning point from loss to profit

looking back at the current time point: the demand in the real estate field is only in the initial stage. With the continuous improvement of the newly started area, the subsequent demand is expected to continue; Exports, which account for 15% of demand, are still at the bottom, and are expected to gradually improve with the recovery of the global economy; The demand for automobiles is also expected to maintain a stable growth situation, so it is relatively certain that the demand will gradually improve

from the supply side, we believe that with the rise of glass prices and the increase of profits, new capacity release is inevitable, but the resumption cost, resumption cycle (about 2-3 months), resumption ratio (deducting the production lines that cannot be resumed, we judge that about 10% left and right) determine that the upward trend of short-term prosperity is relatively clear. The new line also needs about 10 months to be put into operation. Under the relatively clear demand situation, we are relatively optimistic about the glass boom next year when we check the ambient temperature (10 (3) 5 ℃) and humidity day by day (the relative humidity is not greater than 80%)

our views on the current investment opportunities of glass stocks:

since this year, most glass stocks have increased significantly due to the expected changes of new energy. At present, a high valuation level has been formed. Zhang Shuai, a researcher of new energy at Guojin securities, also made an unusually successful continuous recommendation in the early stage

according to Zhang Shuai's latest view: the expectation of the new energy industry is stable and optimistic, that is, the current high valuation level corresponds to the support of the expected improvement of the new energy industry;?? As a traditional cyclical industry, the general glass industry has its own cyclical law of operation. According to our subsequent fundamental analysis, we believe that the glass industry has got rid of the situation of industry losses after experiencing the restorative rise of glass prices from March to may in the glass industry, and in July, with the improvement of real estate completion and other data, the glass price and profit level increased rapidly, We basically believe that the glass industry has just got rid of the cyclical trough and will usher in a new boom cycle

at present, the valuation level caused by the expectation of new energy does not fully reflect the traditional glass industry. 3. The exchange of electricity will also interfere with the improvement of the fundamentals of electronic universal testing machines. Especially when the glass industry has a profit inflection point, from the perspective of the traditional cyclical industry, we suggest investors to continue to grasp the investment opportunities brought by the rapid rise of the glass boom if there is a value on the counter

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